“It’s important for voters to know that voting for anyone other than Kamala Harris essentially means a vote for Trump.”
Recent polls indicate that she has only a one percent chance of receiving votes in the election. However, the Blue Party fears that even this small percentage could be enough for their defeat. Didn’t they lose by an even narrower margin in the 2016 election?
Recent discussions in the media highlight the candidacy of Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate. With her firm stance against Israel’s actions, advocacy for economic equality, universal healthcare, and renewable energy policies, Stein’s chances of winning the election appear slim. However, analysts believe that even a small percentage of votes for her could effectively block Kamala Harris’s path to the White House.
In a recent political advertisement, supporters of Kamala Harris directly targeted Stein, with Democratic Party advisor Ramsey Reed stating, “Like in 2016, Jill Stein will not become President this time, but she can influence who does. Voters must understand that voting for anyone other than Kamala Harris is essentially a vote for Trump.”
Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the main contenders in this U.S. election, have shown support for Israel’s actions, whether directly or indirectly. The Biden administration, with Harris as Vice President, faces significant scrutiny over its response to these events. Notably, a substantial portion of Democratic voters do not align with the Biden administration’s stance.
According to a report from The Guardian, a May survey by Data for Progress revealed that 83% of Democratic supporters favor a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, and 56% believe that Israel’s actions there constitute genocide.
Stein’s Potential to Influence Outcomes
In July, President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, paving the way for Kamala Harris’s candidacy. Neutral polls have shown her slightly ahead of Trump, but the margin has consistently remained around one to two percent.
The latest Washington Post survey indicates that both candidates are at 47% support. Another poll from FiveThirtyEight shows Harris at 48.2% and Trump at 46.3%. However, these surveys have a margin of error of two to three percent, suggesting that the candidates are virtually tied in popularity.
Importantly, U.S. election outcomes do not solely rely on overall popularity. The Electoral College system usually keeps election results in most states consistent. The few swing states—those with frequently changing results—can be pivotal. Recent FiveThirtyEight surveys show that in four major swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina), the margin between the two candidates is less than one percent. Stein could significantly influence these states, particularly Michigan.
The Arab American Institute indicates that Michigan has the highest percentage of Arab Americans, and Muslim Americans there have formed an organization named “Abandon Harris” to oppose the Biden administration’s Middle East policies, supporting Stein.
A September survey by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) found that support for Harris and Stein is nearly equal among Muslim voters (Harris at 29.4% and Stein at 29.1%). However, in three states—Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin—Stein leads both candidates with 35% support.
In the 2020 election, Muslim voters played a crucial role in shaping outcomes. According to Economic Times, 69% of Muslim voters chose Biden, while Trump garnered only 17%. Analysts believe these votes were decisive in key swing states like Michigan.
Historical Context of Third-Party Impact
Jill Stein also ran in the 2016 U.S. election, and the Democratic Party continues to assert that her candidacy contributed to Hillary Clinton’s loss. According to Newsweek, Trump won Michigan by nearly 10,000 votes, while Stein received around 51,000. In Pennsylvania, Trump defeated Clinton by 44,000 votes, with Stein’s ballot accounting for approximately 50,000 votes. The margin in Wisconsin was about 23,000 votes, with Stein receiving 31,000.
In the 2000 U.S. election, the state of Florida was crucial, where Republican candidate George W. Bush won by just 537 votes. In that state, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader received 97,000 votes.
Pre-election surveys suggest that, much like the 2000, 2016, and 2020 elections, this year’s election could be intensely competitive.
Sourec: Ittefaq
